Will Social Security run out? What trust fund depletion means for your check

Key points

• The 2026 Trustees Report projects depletion of the trust fund that pays retirement and survivor benefits in the fourth quarter of 2032. That is a projection, not a date set in law.
• Depletion would not stop benefits. Payroll taxes and income tax on benefits keep coming in. If Congress does not act, the report projects that this income would pay 78% of scheduled benefits, falling to 62% by 2100.
• Under current law, Social Security cannot pay more than its income and reserves, and the trust funds cannot borrow. So after depletion, full benefits could not be paid on time unless Congress changes the law.
• The report describes the choices: more revenue, lower scheduled benefits, or a mix. Its figures show that the later a change is made, the larger it needs to be.

Social Security keeps its money in two trust funds: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits, and the Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund. Each year their Board of Trustees reports to Congress on both. Our Social Security guide covers benefits as a whole. This guide covers the trust fund projections: the dates, what they mean, what the law says, what Congress can change and what the projected cut would mean for a check.

The projections change every year. Everything here comes from the 2026 Trustees Report, the latest on ssa.gov when we checked on October 27, 2026, and from other Social Security Administration (SSA) sources listed at the end. The report’s figures use the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, their best estimate, unless we say otherwise.

When is the Social Security trust fund projected to be depleted?

Trust fund	Projected depletion	Projected share of scheduled benefits payable then	Projected share by 2100
Retirement and survivors (OASI)	Fourth quarter of 2032	78%	62%
Disability (DI)	Not projected to be depleted by 2100	Full benefits	Full benefits
Both combined (OASDI)	Third quarter of 2034	83%	65%

The OASI date is one quarter earlier than in last year’s report. The combined date is the same quarter as last year.

Which date matters for a retiree. The 2034 date is for both funds combined. The report says the OASI and DI trust funds “are distinct legal entities which operate independently.” Benefits to retired workers and their families, and to families of deceased workers, are paid from the OASI trust fund, and the law says those payments “shall be made only from” it. The 2034 figure “implicitly assumes that the law will have been changed to permit the transfer of funds between OASI and DI as needed.” Under current law, the report notes, the gap between scheduled and payable benefits for OASI “would begin before 2034, in 2032.” For retirement and survivor benefits, the projected 2032 date is the one that matters.

How sure is the date? The Trustees also run a low-cost and a high-cost set of assumptions. Under them, the OASI fund is projected to be depleted in 2035 (with 89% of scheduled benefits payable) or 2031 (with 70%). Their stochastic projections, a statistical model of the uncertainty described in appendix E of the report, “suggest that OASI and combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserve depletion is highly probable by 2040.”

What does trust fund depletion mean?

The report defines trust fund reserve depletion as “the point at which reserves in a trust fund are insufficient to pay scheduled benefits in full and on time.”

The reserves are the savings built up when income exceeded cost in earlier years. They are held in special-issue Treasury securities, which SSA describes as “backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government.” Here is how the money moved in 2025, for OASI and DI combined:

2025	Amount
Payroll taxes	$1,323 billion
Income tax on Social Security benefits	$58 billion
Interest on the reserves	$69 billion
Total income	$1,449 billion
Total cost	$1,609 billion
Of which benefit payments	$1,597 billion
Reserves, start of 2025	$2,721 billion
Reserves, end of 2025	$2,561 billion

The three income sources add to $1,450 billion because the report rounds each figure. Income was $160 billion less than cost, and the reserves covered the gap. Total cost has exceeded total income every year since 2021, and the report projects the same for 2026 and every later year. Each year’s shortfall is paid from the reserves until they are used up. That point is depletion.

Payroll taxes do not stop at depletion. Employees and employers each pay 6.2% of wages up to the taxable maximum, $184,500 in 2026, and that income keeps arriving. After depletion, this ongoing income, mostly payroll taxes, is what pays benefits.

What depletion does not mean

• It does not mean benefits stop. The report: “Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion. In the absence of such legislation, continuing income to the OASI Trust Fund at the time of reserve depletion would be sufficient to pay 78 percent of OASI benefits.”
• It is not a scheduled cut. No law sets a cut for 2032. The 78% is the Trustees’ projection of what current-law income could pay if Congress does nothing first.
• It is not a fixed number. The projected share falls over time, to 62% by 2100, because the report projects costs to rise faster than income until about 2085. Each new report updates every figure.
• It is not Medicare. Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund is a separate fund with its own projection: depletion in the second quarter of 2033, with 89% of its scheduled benefits payable.

Reserves have come close to running out before. SSA says the OASI reserves “were nearly depleted in 1982.” Congress passed temporary emergency legislation that let OASI borrow from other federal trust funds, then later passed legislation to strengthen OASI financing. In SSA’s words, “No beneficiary was shortchanged.” That is history, not a forecast.

What does the law say happens after depletion?

Four provisions and statements set the limits:

• Benefits are paid only from the trust fund. The Social Security Act says retirement and survivor benefit payments “shall be made only from the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund.”
• No borrowing. The report: “Under current law, the OASI and DI Trust Funds do not have the authority to borrow other than in the form of advance tax transfers.”
• No paying beyond income and reserves. The Trustees’ summary: “Under current law, however, these programs are not allowed to pay any benefits beyond what is available from annual income and trust fund reserves, and they cannot borrow.”
• No spending beyond available funds. The Antideficiency Act bars federal officials from making “an expenditure or obligation exceeding an amount available in an appropriation or fund for the expenditure or obligation.”

Put together: if a trust fund’s reserves are depleted “and continuing revenue falls short of the cost of scheduled benefits, then full scheduled benefits would not be payable on a timely basis,” in the report’s words. Only a change in the law would alter that. The report states the payable amount as a share of all scheduled OASI benefits, which include the checks of people already retired. It does not set out how a shortfall would be applied to individual checks.

The Congressional Research Service (CRS), Congress’s research agency, has looked at that gap. The version of its report we used is dated September 28, 2022, the latest we could retrieve on October 27, 2026. Its projection figures are older than the 2026 report’s, so we use only its reading of the law. CRS: “The Social Security Act does not stipulate what would happen to benefit payments if the trust funds ran out. As a result, either full benefit checks may be paid on a delayed schedule or reduced benefits would be paid on time.” It adds that “Insolvency would not relieve the government of its obligation to provide benefits,” and that beneficiaries “could take legal action to claim the balance of their benefits.”

Why the trust fund is running down

The main reason is the ratio of workers to beneficiaries. There were about 2.6 workers paying in for every beneficiary in 2025. That ratio held between 3.2 and 3.4 from 1974 through 2008. The report projects it to fall to about 1.9 by 2075, as “workers of lower-birth-rate generations replace workers of earlier generations.”

The report measures the long-term gap as an actuarial deficit of 4.42% of taxable payroll over the 75 years to 2100, up from 3.82% in last year’s report. It names the change to its assumption about future birth rates as “the largest contributor” to that increase.

What can Congress do? The options the Trustees describe

The report describes a range rather than a single fix: “Lawmakers have a wide continuum of policy options that would close or reduce Social Security’s long-term financing shortfall.” Broadly, the approaches are:

• “increasing revenue from workers and employers by raising the tax rate or the maximum level of taxable earnings, or by dedicating revenue from other sources;”
• “lowering benefits for some or all beneficiaries by changing certain program parameters; or”
• “a combination of these approaches.”

To show the size of the gap for the combined program, the report gives single changes that would each keep it solvent through 2100:

If made in	Raise the payroll tax rate from 12.40% to	Or cut scheduled benefits for everyone by	Or cut benefits only for people newly eligible by
2026	16.65%	25.2%	30.3%
2034	17.30%	28.5%	Not given

The 12.40% is the combined employee and employer rate. The report adds that “other equivalent combinations of increased revenue and/or reduced benefits” would also work, and that waiting concentrates larger changes “on fewer years and fewer generations.” The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the shortfalls “in a timely way in order to phase in necessary changes gradually and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust.”

SSA’s Office of the Chief Actuary publishes estimates of the financial effect of many specific options, grouped by type: cost-of-living adjustments, the level of monthly benefits, the retirement age, benefits for family members, payroll taxes and the maximum taxable amount, coverage and other revenue sources, investing in marketable securities, taxation of benefits and individual accounts. We list these as the actuaries group them, not as a view on which, if any, Congress should adopt.

What the projected cut would mean for your check

At 78%, every scheduled dollar becomes 78 cents. In today’s dollars:

Monthly check as scheduled	At 78%	Difference
$1,500	$1,170	$330
$2,000	$1,560	$440
$2,170, the estimated average retired worker check after the 2027 increase	$1,692.60	$477.40
$4,188, the maximum at full retirement age in 2027	$3,266.64	$921.36

Worked example. You were born on April 15, 1960. Your full retirement age is 67, and your monthly benefit at that age (your primary insurance amount) is $2,000. You claim at 67, in April 2027, and plan to age 90.

• With full scheduled benefits, you get $2,000 a month, $552,000 in total by 90.
• With the calculator’s projected cut, you get $2,000 a month until December 2032, then $1,560 from January 2033. Your total by 90 is $460,920: $91,080, or 16.5%, less.
• Someone with the same $2,000 benefit born on April 15, 1970, claiming at 67 in April 2037, would get $1,560 from the first check under the calculator’s 78%: $430,560 by 90, $121,440 less.

Run this example in our Social Security calculator with the projected cut switched on, or the 1970 version.

What the calculator assumes. It applies 78% to every check from January 2033, the first full year after the projected depletion, and holds it there. Four things to keep in mind:

• The report projects depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032, so a shortfall could start a few months before January 2033.
• The report projects the payable share falling to 62% by 2100. Holding 78% makes the calculator’s later years more generous than the report’s projection.
• It applies the same percentage to everyone, including people already retired, as a smaller check paid on time. As above, the law does not say how a shortfall would be applied; CRS names delayed full checks as the other possibility.
• It works in today’s dollars and leaves out cost-of-living increases, so each age compares like for like.

The cut also changes the break-even ages between claiming early and late. Our break-even age guide shows by how much. For the claiming decision itself, see Social Security claiming strategies and delaying Social Security. For how checks rise with inflation each year, see the Social Security COLA. Income tax on benefits is one of the trust funds’ income sources; see is Social Security taxable.

About this guide

Written by the Diversify Guy editorial desk. Diversify Guy is a pen name. It is the byline of our editorial team, not a single individual. We do not publish personal trading records or claim to be your adviser. We tell you where every figure came from so you can check it yourself. How we work and how we get paid.

This guide explains federal rules and official projections. It is not personalized tax or investment advice, and it is not a prediction of what Congress will do. Diversify Guy earns affiliate commissions and advertising fees from companies featured elsewhere on the site. This page carries no ads and no affiliate links.

Sources and check dates

All sources were fetched and checked on October 27, 2026. The Trustees Report is updated every year; on that date the 2026 report was the latest release on ssa.gov.

• The 2026 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds (full report, PDF): https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/tr2026.pdf
• SSA Office of the Chief Actuary, The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (report page): https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2026/
• SSA Office of the Chief Actuary, Reports from the Board of Trustees (“Latest Release: 2026 Report”): https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/
• Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TRSUM/index.html
• SSA Office of the Chief Actuary, Frequently Asked Questions about the Social Security Trust Funds: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/fundFAQ.html
• SSA Office of the Chief Actuary, Estimates of Individual Changes Modifying Social Security: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/
• Social Security Act section 201 (42 U.S.C. 401), U.S. Code 2024 edition: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title42/html/USCODE-2024-title42-chap7-subchapII-sec401.htm
• SSA, 2027 Social Security Changes fact sheet (tax rate, taxable maximum, average and maximum benefits): https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/cola/factsheets/2027.html
• Antideficiency Act, 31 U.S.C. 1341, U.S. Code 2024 edition: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2024-title31/html/USCODE-2024-title31-subtitleII-chap13-subchapIII-sec1341.htm
• Congressional Research Service, Social Security: What Would Happen If the Trust Funds Ran Out? (RL33514, updated September 28, 2022): https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/PDF/RL33514/RL33514.34.pdf